Returning B10 Player Rankings - Top Ten
October 10, 2023
Image is Copyright 2022 Alexander Jonesi
Previous Rankings: Honorable Mention, #25 – #20, #19 – #15, #14 – #11
Welcome back to our 2023-2024 B1G Returning Player Rankings. This is the final release in our series and will cover the top ten ranked returning players in the Big Ten.
These rankings are based on prior season statistics, as well as projected opportunity for the upcoming season. There are several immediate impact freshmen – such as Mackenzie Mbako, Xavier Booker, Deshawn Harris Smith, and Gavin Griffiths among others – who will certainly have a chance to crack the top 25 player threshold throughout the year. However, for this exercise we did not include incoming freshmen. The talented newcomers will get their own article in the coming weeks.
#10: Dawson Garcia
Minnesota
Sr. – F – 6’11” 230lbs
15.3ppg 6.7rpg 34.5% 3PT
Garcia is the best player on a non-tournament team in the conference (depending on how you view Ace Baldwin). He’s versatile at 6’11” as he can take defenders down into the post where he has good footwork, can hit midrange jump shots, and can also stroke the 3 ball (34.5% on over 3 attempts per game). He’s also able to handle the ball, which can cause defenses problems at his height. He should be able to cause a ton of these problems at his natural position (the 4) this year with rising sophomore Pharell Payne holding down the center position.
Purely from a numbers and statistics standpoint, Garcia will probably have the best production of any forward in the league this year. It’s hard to match that up against some of the other forwards on the list on more well-rounded teams, but we wouldn’t be upset with anyone wanting to move him up the list because of it. Dawson will surely move himself up our list throughout the year if he’s able to orchestrate his own Minneapolis Miracle and get the Gophers out of B1G purgatory.
#9: Coleman Hawkins
Illinois
Sr. – F – 6’10” 225lbs
9.9ppg 6.3rpg 3apg
Like Dawson Garcia, Coleman Hawkins is a versatile 4 man at 6’10” who can play the 4 or 5 comfortably. He isn’t nearly the scorer that Garcia is (9.9ppg) but he’s more of a facilitator from the forward position. While his numbers might not be eye popping, it was easy to see how key he was to Illinois’ success last year as a facilitator and defender. He is an outstanding multi-positional defender (might be one of the few guys in the conference who can reasonably switch 1-5 successfully). You’ll see him get switched onto Boo Buie at some points, and you’ll see him walling up against Zach Edey at others. We’d be surprised if he wasn’t on the All B1G Defense team at the end of the year.
Last season, Illinois didn’t have a true veteran point guard to smooth over the offense, so Hawkins took on a large portion of that missing facilitation. This year, Illinois failed to land a veteran transfer point guard. Will the Ty Rodgers and Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn point guard experiment work and allow Hawkins to better settle into his role? Furthermore, if these two smooth out the offense, will Coleman get better looks from the 3PT line and increase his 28% from last year? If he limits the turnovers (2.5/game) and shoots well, Illinois becomes a lot more dangerous, and Coleman Hawkins becomes a lock for an All B1G team.
#8: Olivier Nkamhoua
Michigan
5th Sr. – F – 6’9” 235lbs
10.8ppg 5rpg 33.3% 3PT
Our third forward in a row on the list, Nkamhoua (transferring from Tennessee) joins a Michigan team that needed an alpha following the departures of Hunter Dickinson, Kobe Bufkin, and Jett Howard. While Nkamhoua’s numbers were nothing overly impressive, he was playing as the 3rd option on Rick Barnes’ team – who always emphasizes the defensive side of the ball. At Michigan, he immediately has the chance to step in as a top option on an offense that is a little more friendly towards production. And there is a lot of production available: 46.7ppg lost between Dickinson and the two 1st round draft picks.
Nkamhoua is also a very good defender, otherwise he wouldn’t have been playing heavy minutes for Rick Barnes. He has a great combination of size, strength, and athleticism that allows him to be a versatile defender. The knock on Nkamhoua is his consistency. Michigan fans point to his 27-point outing on 77% shooting in Tennessee’s win over Duke in the second round of the NCAA tournament this past March. In his other two tournament games, he averaged 7ppg on 26% shooting (against Louisiana and Florida Atlantic). His tournament was a microcosm of his season (he scored 20 or more 5 times and 6 or less 8 times). This summer he played on the Finnish national team, and reportedly looked pretty good in doing so. If Michigan gets a consistent Nkamhoua as their alpha, their odds of making the tournament go up drastically.
#7: AJ Hoggard
Michigan St.
Sr. – G – 6’4” 210lbs
12.9ppg 5.9apg 32.9% 3PT
Hoggard has steadily improved for 3 seasons, and really seemed to put it all together down the stretch last year. In the final 8 games of the season, he averaged 16.1ppg and 6.25apg on 54% 3PT shooting. He also had a phenomenal sweet sixteen against Markquis Nowell and Kansas State with a career high of 25 points. Michigan State will hope that Hoggard’s fantastic run to end last season bleeds over into this year.
AJ has improved his 3PT shooting each collegiate season (16.7% -> 21.9% -> 32.9%) on increasing volume (.7 attempts/game -> .9 attempts/game -> 2.1 attempts/game). If that trend continues, it wouldn’t be difficult to see Hoggard making 1st Team All B1G by season’s end. He already serves as one of the most physical guards in the conference at 210 pounds and gets downhill with ease. At the very worst, Hoggard is one of the best – if not the best – floor generals in the B1G.
#6: Cliff Omoruyi
Rutgers
Sr. – C – 6’11” 240lbs
13.2ppg 9.6rpg 2.1bpg
Are you a fan of video game-like dunks? If so, Big Cliff is your guy to watch for the upcoming B1G basketball season. With go-go gadget arms, Cliff will dunk anything within what seems like a 15-foot radius of the rim. Those same arms allow him to be an extreme deterrent in the paint (2.1 blocks/game) and anchor a perennially great Rutgers defense. He’s also the league’s second leading returning rebounder at 9.6rpg, so there should be many double doubles for Cliff this season.
Rutgers will rely heavily on Cliff again this season after losing Caleb McConnell, Cam Spencer, and Paul Mulcahy. The one critique people have of Cliff is his offensive arsenal beyond dunking and lack of true post moves. His field goal percentage did drop a bit last year from 63.5% down to 50.7%. However, even if he doesn’t come back with more post moves or consistency, he still serves as the most athletic big man in the conference with the best highlight reel. Besides, who needs post footwork when you can dunk like that?
#5: Jahmir Young Maryland
5th Sr. – G – 6’1” 185lbs
15.8ppg 3.1apg 31.1% 3PT
Some were skeptical of how well Jahmir Young would translate to the B10 last year after transferring to Maryland from Charlotte. He silenced any doubters leading Maryland to the tournament as the team’s alpha. He’s dynamic and can get to the rim with his speed and draw fouls on a consistent basis (nearly 5 attempts per game) where he’s shot 83% over his 4-year career.
Last year the 3PT shooting percentage dropped down to 31% after he averaged about 35% over his first 3 years at Charlotte. Some of that regression is to be expected when transitioning from Conference USA to the Big Ten, but some can also be attributed to the role Young had to play. There weren’t really any other creators in the backcourt on last year’s squad, so Young was forced to take some tough shots throughout the year. Kevin Willard will hope that the dynamic addition of freshman DeShawn Harris-Smith will take some burdens off Young’s plate and allow him to play even more efficient basketball (only 41.5% FG overall last year). Look for Young to take those steps and keep Maryland in strong contention for the double bye in the B1G Tournament.
#4: Boo Buie Northwestern
5th Sr. – G – 6’2” 180lbs
17.3ppg 4.5apg 31.8% 3PT
Boo Buie – another lock for 1st Team All B1G Names – has always been a bucket getter. Prior to last season, he had shown many scoring outbursts (as a freshman he had 26 and 25 points back-to-back against MSU and DePaul, as a sophomore he had 30 against MSU, and as a junior 27 against Nebraska) but was extremely inconsistent. Last season, Buie finally put everything together and was firmly among the best guards in the conference. He was the heart and soul of the second team in Northwestern’s program history to make the NCAA Tournament.
Boo still isn’t overly efficient (40.6% FG and 31.8% 3PT), but that is to be expected when looking at the burden he takes on with Northwestern. Most of the time, he has the ball in his hands and Chris Collins counts on him to make a play. A concern this season could be the loss of Chase Audige. Audige averaged 14.1ppg last season (though not overly efficient either) helping ease some of the scoring burden off Buie. While this could be an opportunity for Boo to increase his scoring even more, we think it will be key for someone to help Boo out (looking at you Brooks Barnhizer). In all, look for Buie to approach 20ppg while attempting to get Northwestern back to the tournament and become a 1st Team All B1G member.
#3: Tyson Walker Michigan St.
5th Sr. – G – 6’1” 185lbs
14.8ppg 2.9apg 41.5% 3PT
Walker projects to be the best player on a team that is one of the favorites to take home the conference title and have a shot at making the Final Four. Last season, he seemed to get on the same page with Tom Izzo and was rewarded with increased playing time and production. He’s always been a good defender (CAA Defensive Player of the Year at Northeastern as a sophomore), but he’s taken his shooting to another level at Michigan State. In two years with the Spartans, he’s shot an incredible 43.5% from 3 on good volume. He’s also great at getting in the lane and finishing with mid-range jumpers, and floaters.
Walker also offers Izzo a second ball handler to AJ Hoggard as a true combo guard. Over the past two seasons he has owned a 2.3 to 1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Hoggard is one of the best creators in the country (nearly 6 assists per game) and meshes quite well with Tyson. This helps blend Walker’s offensive opportunities for high quality off-ball shots as well as on-ball creation. Walker wrapped up 2023 averaging 18.6ppg on 47% 3PT shooting over the last 8 games. Look for him to continue that hot streak as MSU’s closer and leader of the best backcourt trio in the country.
#2: Terrence Shannon Jr.
Illinois
5th Sr. – G – 6’6” 225lbs
17.2ppg 4.6rpg 32.1% 3PT
Shannon will be one of the best two-way players in the country. He’s an extremely athletic lefty who can be a freight train getting to the rim in the halfcourt and in transition. When you live at the rim like TSJ does, you’re bound to draw a ton of fouls. Shannon did just that, averaging 6.8 FTAs per game (second in the conference only to a certain Purdue big man) where he shot 79% from the line.
If TSJ can get his 3PT percentage (32.1%) back to where it was in his final year at Texas Tech (38.4%), he should be an assured draft pick. Last season’s percentage drop could be attributed to the tough shots he was forced to take. If Illinois’ offense flows better with Ty Rodgers managing the show, Terrence should be able to get better looks. Mathew Mayer – the team’s other go-to scorer is gone – so it seems like TSJ is the absolute go-to man from a scoring standpoint this year. He showed flashes of being an unstoppable force last year, best exhibited by 29 points on 8/9 3PT shooting in a November win over UCLA and 24 points in the second half of an 18-point comeback against Northwestern. If he can be a more consistent force and shooter this season, expect TSJ to land on an All-American team and Illinois to play their first B1G Tournament game on Friday.
#1: Zach Edey
Purdue
Sr. – C – 7’4” 300lbs
22.3ppg 12.9rpg 60.7% FG
If there is any name other than Zach Edey on the Big Ten or National Player of the Year line at the end of the season, then we would be shocked. Edey is the returning National Player of the Year, and obviously returning Big Ten Player of the Year. He essentially returns his entire cast back with him from a Big Ten Regular Season Title, Big Ten Tournament Title, and 29-6 1 seed while adding a few talented newcomers including Myles Colvin.
There isn’t much more to say that hasn’t been repeated over and over. Edey is an unstoppable force on the offensive end, as he’s just too big for everyone. But he isn’t just big, Edey has incredible conditioning (31.8mpg at 300lbs) and footwork for a man his size. He’s also a huge deterrent both physically (2.1bpg) and mentally at the rim, and is a lock to make his second consecutive B1G All Defensive Team. If Edey takes yet another step this year – if that’s even possible – it will come down to Purdue shooting better from 3. Last year, the team shot 32.17% from 3 which put them at 281st in the country. If that percentage shoots up, that potentially opens up the lane more for Edey, presents him with more kick out opportunities, and makes Purdue’s offense even more potent.
Whether Edey or Purdue make improvements or not, this mountain masquerading as a man will be B1G Player of the Year.
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