By B1G Bounce – September 25, 2023
THE FAVORITES
1. PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
Last Year: 29-6 Overall, 15-5 B1G (1st), Nationally: Offense 12th, Defense 24th
The FDU jokes have run their course. Purdue was a 1 seed last year with the national player of the year and won the B10 outright by 3 games. In addition to returning Zach Edey, the Boilers also return a majority of their roster, including 7 of their top 9 scorers.
They also added talented freshman Myles Colvin, who brings some sorely needed wing athleticism. Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer each started all 35 games as freshmen and seem like prime candidates for sophomore leaps. Trey Kaufman-Renn also looked the part of a breakout candidate on Purdue’s foreign trip without Edey.
Mason Gillis, Caleb Furst, and Ethan Morton are back in addition to Southern Illinois transfer Lance Jones. Bet on Matt Painter ending Purdue’s streak of losing to double digit seeds in March this year.
2. MICHIGAN ST SPARTANS
Last Year: 21-13 Overall, 11-8 B1G (4th), Nationally: Offense 27th, Defense 42nd
Following a thrilling Sweet 16 overtime loss to Kansas State, Michigan State may have the highest ceiling in the B1G due to their overall talent, and guard play. They will be carried by the best trio of guards in the country in Tyson Walker, AJ Hoggard, and Jaden Akins.
Add in a talented recruiting class of Xavier Booker, Jeremy Fears, Coen Carr, and Gehrig Normand, and you can see the vision with Izzo at the helm. Booker was a consensus top 15 recruit, and Fears will add even more depth to the backcourt as a McDonald’s All American true point guard. Carr is immediately one of the best athletes in the country.
Malik Hall remaining healthy throughout the season will be a huge factor to the MSU’s ceiling with the departure of Joey Hauser. If Xavier Booker ends up being the unquestionable answer at center – over Sissoko, Cooper, and Kohler – Izzo could have another team playing in April.
THE NEXT BEST
3. Illinois Fighting Illini
Last Year: 20-13 Overall, 11-9 B1G (7th), Nationally: Offense 68th, Defense 26th
Last year’s narrative was a team of talented newcomers without a lot of experience (102 combined career starts) and resulted in a 1st round NCAA tournament exit as a 9 seed. This year will be the opposite (393 starts).
Last year the 3pt shooting was abysmal, however Brad Underwood hopes a healthy Luke Goode, and 3 solid shooting upperclassmen transfers may be the answer. They lose 2nd leading scorer Matthew Mayer, freshman Jayden Epps, and RJ Melendez. Terrence Shannon is back with all American aspirations and Coleman Hawkins will finally look to put it all together after testing NBA draft waters.
This is one of the deepest rosters of talent in the B1G, however it seems the Illini were one elite transfer point guard from being a top 15 team in the country. If the Ty Rodgers point guard experiment works out, and the transfers shoot well from 3, this team could still get there.
4. Ohio St Buckeyes
Last Year: 16-19 Overall, 5-15 B1G (13th), Nationally: Offense 19th, Defense 106th
Ohio State had a good ending to a disappointing season last year. They lost their best player in 1st round draft pick Brice Sensabaugh, and veterans Justice Sueing, Sean McNeil, and Isaac Likekele. But they also return a myriad of talented underclassmen in addition to another great recruiting class.
Current sophomores Bruce Thornton, Roddy Gayle, and Felix Okpara all had great B10 tournaments in the team’s surprise run to the semifinals. Zed Key will need to stay healthy for the Buckeyes’s post depth following last year’s shoulder injury.
Add in a talented recruiting class that includes potential All B1G Freshmen team member Scotty Middleton, Minnesota transfer Jamison Battle, and you have momentum brewing from last year’s late season surge. This is more of an upside pick, but if Ohio State gets multiple sophomore year leaps and Jamison Battle can revert to a go-to scorer (17.5ppg Junior year), the Buckeyes could be a dangerous team.
5. Maryland Terrapins
Last Year: 22-13 Overall, 11-9 B1G (6th), Nationally: Offense 36th, Defense 32nd
Maryland has one of the most explosive guards in the conference in Jahmir Young. The Terrapins also return veterans Donta Scott and Julian Reese while losing starters Hakim Hart and Don Carey following a second-round exit in the NCAA tournament in Kevin Willard’s first year at the helm.
This ranking is banking on the immediate impact of two heralded freshmen who should round out the starting lineup. Jamie Kaiser flashed a bit on Maryland’s foreign tour, and Willard will hope for Kaiser to be a versatile piece at the wing position. Deshawn Harris Smith will be the X factor. Many consider DHS to be a future pro, and if he shows this in year one, Maryland will have one of the best starting lineups in the conference.
If transfers Jordan Geronimo, Mady Traore, and Chance Stephens are solid, then the XFINITY Center is in for another exciting year.
TIER 3
6. Indiana Hoosiers
Last Year: 23-12 Overall, 12-8 B1G (3rd), Nationally: Offense 28th, Defense 45th
The Hoosiers lose one of the program’s all-time greats in Trayce Jackson Davis in addition to 1st round draft pick Jalen Hood-Schifino, veteran Race Thompson, and role players Miller Kopp, Tamar Bates, and Jordan Geronimo. However, the cupboard isn’t completely bare following last year’s second round loss to Miami.
Mike Woodson has gone out and acquired talent via high school recruiting and the portal. He added one of the most talented big men in the portal in Oregon transfer Kel’el Ware. He also added one of the most talented recruits in the country with Duke decommit Mackenzie Mgbako. Retaining Malik Reneau, Xavier Johnson, and Trey Galloway among other role players gives Woodson the talent to compete in the thick of the B1G.
Like Illinois, things feel a bit clunky with the roster construction. It looks as if Woodson might be starting 3 posts. Questions also lie in the backcourt which should be manned by Johnson (coming off injury) and Galloway. Can these two provide enough production, or will another guard such as CJ Gunn, Jakai Newton, or Gabe Cupps emerge? We’re betting on the talent Woodson has brought in to mesh by season’s end in Bloomington.
7. Iowa Hawkeyes
Last Year: 19-14 Overall, 11-9 B1G (5th), Nationally: Offense 4th, Defense 168th
For the first time in 3 years, it looks like the Hawkeyes might not have a surefire NBA player heading into the season. The Hawks are coming off a first round NCAA tournament loss to Auburn as an 8 seed. Most notably, the team loses 1st round NBA draft pick Kris Murray and 3rd team All B1G (media) big man Filip Rebraca.
Fran McCaffery wasn’t overly active in the portal, but he did snag Ben Krikke (19.4ppg) to replace Rebraca. Other notable newcomers include the freshmen class of point guard Brock Harding, Pryce Sandfort, and big man Owen Freeman – who flashed a bit in Iowa’s overseas trip.
Iowa’s offense under McCaffery is always humming and is bound to produce at least one big time scorer. Look for one of the veterans in Tony Perkins, Patrick McCaffery, or Payton Sandfort to be that guy. Iowa has only finished below 7th place twice in Fran’s 13-year tenure, so expect Iowa’s offense to find a way to keep them above that threshold.
8. Wisconsin Badgers
Last Year: 20-15 Overall, 9-11 B1G (12th), Nationally: Offense 140th, Defense 19th
As was the case with Ohio State, the Badgers had somewhat of a disappointing, yet rollercoaster year. The fighting Greg Gard’s started out hot (11-2 and ranked #14 in the country) before a Tyler Wahl injury and a 9-13 NCAA tournament-less finish to the year.
The only true rotational piece the Badgers lose is Jordan Davis, while upgrading with St John’s transfer AJ Storr. Both Storr and Connor Essegian seem like candidates for sophomore year leaps following good freshmen seasons. Max Klesmit will also be a good depth piece in his second year in the B1G, and freshmen big man Gus Yalden will be a fan favorite.
Add in tons of continuity with solid B1G veterans like Chucky Hepburn, Tyler Wahl, and Steven Crowl – and this team has a very stable floor as long as everyone stays healthy.
9. Michigan Wolverines
Last Year: 18-16 Overall, 11-9 B1G (8th), Nationally: Offense 48th, Defense 47th
The Maize and Blue had a rough season and offseason. The Wolverines missed the tournament for the first time in 7 seasons while having an All-American caliber big man and two first round NBA draft picks in Kobe Bufkin and Jett Howard. Now, it’s nearly a fresh reset in Ann Arbor with Hunter Dickinson headed to Kansas.
Juwan Howard hit the portal this summer, managing to grab a class of Nimari Burnett, Tray Jackson, and Oliver Nkamhoua. Nkamhoua was the prize of the class and is expected to be the clear star of next year’s squad. Jaelin Llewellyn (coming off injury) and Dug McDaniel return in the backcourt, and frontcourt pieces Tarris Reed, Will Tschetter, and Terrence Williams are also back. Freshman George Washington III could be a notable addition for the team’s guard depth if he pops.
If Michigan makes the tournament this year, McDaniel and Nkamhoua will need to be efficient scorers, and the Wolverines defense will need to be stifling. A lineup consisting of some form of McDaniel, Burnett, Nkamhoua, and Reed could be stifling.
10. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Last Year: 19-15 Overall, 10-10 B1G (9th), Nationally: Offense 151st, Defense 6th
Rutgers loses a ton of veteran production in B1G DPOY Caleb McConnell, Paul Mulcahy, and their best shooter Cam Spencer. The good news is that the Scarlet Knights return their All B1G center Cliff Omoruyi along with a solid young core.
Also returning from last year is current sophomore Derek Simpson – who will need to take a sophomore leap in the backcourt. He showed some explosiveness late in the season with 18 points against Purdue in the B1G Tournament, and a career high 19 points against Hofstra in the NIT. Helping Simpson in the backcourt will be UMass transfer Noah Fernandes who averaged 13ppg last year on 45% 3pt shooting before getting hurt.
Steve Pikiell will have a plethora of options at the wing with Aundre Hyatt, a hopefully healthy Mawot Mag, and high potential freshman Gavin Griffiths. Griffiths reportedly looked very good in Rutgers’ foreign trip and will be a threat to the All B1G Freshmen Team.
Omoruyi should be in contention for 1st Team All B1G, but his surrounding cast has the potential to propel Rutgers up the B1G ladder.
11. Northwestern Wildcats
Last Year: 22-12 Overall, 12-8 B1G (2nd), Nationally: Offense 88th, Defense 22nd
Chris Collins has the Wildcats coming off the best season in school history after finishing second in the B1G standings and giving UCLA a run for their money in the 2nd round of the NCAA tournament as a 7 seed.
On the upcoming season, they return 1st Team All B1G point guard Boo Buie, who was finally able to put everything together last year after showing flashes for 3 years. However, his backcourt mate Chase Audige opted not to return (along with starter Robbie Beran). This is a big loss as Audige won co-DPOY last year and took on a scoring role (14.1ppg) that helped relieve some pressure off Buie.
Someone will need to take on sidekick scoring role to Buie, and the best bet is Brooks Barnhizer. Barnhizer averaged 7.6ppg last year as a sophomore but came on strong over his last 8 games averaging 12ppg on 41% 3pt shooting. Ty Berry also returns to offer support in backcourt but will need to rediscover his 3pt form after dipping below 30% last year.
7-footer Matthew Nicholson also returns to provide solid interior defense. However, if the Wildcats want to finish in the upper half of the B1G again, Boo Buie will have to have an All-American type of season.
BOTTOM TIER
12. Nebraska Huskers
Last Year: 16-16 Overall, 9-11 B1G (11th), Nationally: Offense 149th, Defense 69th
Last year was Fred Hoiberg’s best season in Lincoln when the Huskers won 9 games in conference play. That squad loses big man anchor Derrick Walker, and point forward Sam Griesel, but retains one of the most exciting players in the conference in Keisei Tominaga.
Tominaga was on a tear at the end of last season, averaging 20.3ppg over his last 9 games while shooting 43% from 3 on substantial volume (over 7 attempts per game). The Husker’s success will depend on how much support Tominaga’s cast provides him.
CJ Wilcher is the next top returning scorer at 8ppg, and is also joined back by coach’s son Sam Hoiberg, and Juwan Gary (coming off injury). The big additions of the offseason were Brice Williams from Charlotte and Rienk Mast of Bradley. Williams is a big guard (13.8ppg on nearly 40% 3pt shooting) and will offer help on the wing. Mast will provide much needed help down low being the only proven big man on the roster.
Nebraska will need Tominaga to be special, and a few other breakouts to avoid Wednesday in the B1G tournament.
13. Penn St. Nittany Lions
Last Year: 23-14 Overall, 10-10 B1G (10th), Nationally: Offense 13th, Defense 96th
Penn St. was one of the most exciting teams in the conference to watch last year. However, gone is the backdown prowess of Jalen Pickett and explosive outside shooting of Andrew Funk, Seth Lundy, Camren Winter, and Myles Dread. Even promising sophomore big Kebba Nije has gone off on his way to Notre Dame with former head coach Micah Shrewsberry.
Mike Rhoades (VCU) is taking on a complete roster overhaul. The one notable holdover from last year’s squad is lightning quick sophomore guard Kanye Clary. Rhoades has brought the A10 overall and DPOY with him from VCU in point guard Ace Baldwin. In addition to Baldwin, the Nittany Lions are also bringing in a pair of North Carolina transfers in D’Marco Dunn and Puff Johnson to solidify the wing.
Journeyman Qudus Wahab is back in the B10 again (previously at Maryland) after 2 separate stops at Georgetown. Rhoades and Baldwin will make sure that PSU has a tough identity – however there may not be enough pieces this year to get out of the B1G cellar.
14. Minnesota Gophers
Last Year: 9-22 Overall, 2-17 B1G (14th), Nationally: Offense 235th, Defense 188th
The Golden Gophers find themselves near the bottom of the B1G yet again in terms of expectations. After winning only 2 games in B1G play last year, there isn’t much more buzz surrounding this year’s squad.
Ben Johnson has a solid frontcourt in Dawson Garcia (15.3ppg and 6.7rpg) and promising rising sophomore Pharrel Payne (8.2ppg and 5.2rpg). Joshua Ola-Joseph also had a solid freshmen season as a hardnosed forward.
The problem lies in the backcourt. The Gophers couldn’t establish any continuity from last year losing Ta’Lon Cooper and freshman Jaden Henley – who had shown a few flashes. This year the team will need Pepperdine transfer Mike Mitchell Jr. to have a huge season from the guard position. The team will also have high hopes and a lot of opportunity for freshman guard Cam Christie.
However, it doesn’t seem likely that Ben Johnson’s squad will move much further up the B1G totem pole.
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